tl;dr

• downside of working on multiple projects: divided time/focus, risk of low ROI
• this write-up from joe lonsdale on peter thiel’s 8 lessons is goated: one thing I think about = better returns per unit of time from focusing…but I do love variety
• key criteria for projects: fun, engaging, flow state
• overestimated predictability of outcomes in the past—learned that world is more random than expected
• putting names in the hat creates opportunity, you make your own luck
• balancing inspiration vs. originality—most things are "similar but different"

One downside of working on multiple things at once? Splitting time and focus, plus the risk of spending effort on low ROI projects. Reminds me of this blog post on 8 lessons from Peter Thiel written by Joe Lonsdale (his episode on My First Million podcast is good). Not to mention Peter’s older seminars on contrarian investing, luck, and philosophy are also goated. His newer stuff is more political, which is fine, but not as relevant for this.

One of Thiel’s key points: working on one thing will get you better returns per unit of time than working on five things at once. For me, blessing and a curse, I like variety. Rather try a bunch of things and see what sticks.

I’ll probably look back and think I should’ve focused on high-ROI things, but I’ve also, in the past, overestimated how predictable the future is. I used to think outcomes were more deterministic—do X, get Y. I don’t believe that anymore. The world is more random, more complex than before. Small projects might not lead to outsized outcomes, but there’s value in putting things into the world. You make your own luck.

I go back and forth on first-mover advantage. Generally, the first person to do something interesting, entertaining, or valuable captures most of the upside. Copycats rarely outdo the original.

But in other cases—like trends on TikTok, YouTube, or Twitter—the first person to execute well usually wins.

That said, there’s a fine line between copying and being inspired. Everything I do is influenced by things I’ve seen, but I add my own spin. It’s different, but also not. Spend enough time online and you’ll notice most things follow the “similar but different” formula. Will this approach work? No idea. Maybe I’m overconfident, maybe everything will be trash, or maybe it’ll be interesting. TBD.